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French Elections

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Re: French Elections

Postby Voldemort » Wed May 10, 2017 5:31 pm

dls wrote:Asserting that a currency falls or climbs says almost nothing as to the anticipated success or otherwise of economic policies.

Shorter term movements - completely agree.

However, things like fiscal policy (tightening or loosening), financial regulation and tax, trade policies - protectionist/isolationist, public spending etc. all have tangible impact on medium to long term currency values.
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Re: French Elections

Postby dls » Wed May 10, 2017 6:59 pm

Yes but currency values are essentially neutral. As Heraclitus (pre Socratic Greek philosopher) put it - the way up (for some) is the way down (for others)
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Re: French Elections

Postby atticus » Wed May 10, 2017 7:07 pm

That works for goal difference across a league. At any time the goal difference of the entire Premier League is zero. But, right now, whose would you prefer: Spurs or Sunderland? They are not of equal value.
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Re: French Elections

Postby Voldemort » Wed May 10, 2017 8:27 pm

dls wrote:Yes but currency values are essentially neutral.

Perhaps I'm missing the point - could you clarify what you mean by this?
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Re: French Elections

Postby dls » Thu May 11, 2017 1:00 pm

A change in the value of one currency against the other makes financial movements one way cheaper and the other way more expensive. Modern economies involve hugely complicated mountains of movements in both directions.

Back in the sixties, a devaluation was the (only) way of rescuing an economy.
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Re: French Elections

Postby miner » Thu May 11, 2017 2:32 pm

And as long as countries like Greece and Italy remain in the Euro bloc, their economies cannot be rescued.

Italy has a healthy export business which it maintained and expanded before it joined the Euro - by routinely devaluing the Lira. Devaluation kept it export-competitive. That is a simple, indisputable fact.

One size does not and never will fit all. It never can. The ability to devalue is an essential tool and remains such for certain economies. The structure and operation of Italy's economy was, is, and likely always will be very different to that of other EU Countries such as France, Germany, Sweden, the UK et al.

Italy is one of many countries which should never have been drawn into the Euro. The Euro has been its economic ruination.
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Re: French Elections

Postby LoveandPeace » Thu May 11, 2017 5:53 pm

dls wrote:A change in the value of one currency against the other makes financial movements one way cheaper and the other way more expensive.

That just sounds like a trade.
dls wrote:Modern economies involve hugely complicated mountains of movements in both directions.


I agree particularly where derivatives are concerned, however, that is just trades and your description does not appear to take into account the general (I think it's the daily average like Libor) market value price movement, the Curve.

You''ll get the graph on google.
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Re: French Elections

Postby LoveandPeace » Thu May 11, 2017 5:58 pm

atticus wrote:That was indeed 6 months ago. Whether the two are related, I do not know.


Although I don't think the Euro is hinged to the Dollar (I don't know for certain) like the dollar hinged to oil prices (petro-dollar) but it does look like it's had an impact on the Euro. The reason I say that is on re-reading the link I posted the the U.S dollar has also fallen (oil prices) and the dollar did rise (I think) at the American election. Well, i remember Trump tweeting about it, patting himself on the back. I guess the dollar affects us all around the world.

I just noticed Carney is now saying there will be rise in inflation. It's all linked in some way or another.
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Re: French Elections

Postby dls » Thu May 11, 2017 7:52 pm

And as long as countries like Greece and Italy remain in the Euro bloc, their economies cannot be rescued.


And Scotland?
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Re: French Elections

Postby miner » Thu May 11, 2017 10:45 pm

dls wrote:
And as long as countries like Greece and Italy remain in the Euro bloc, their economies cannot be rescued.


And Scotland?


Irrespective of the yapping of Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland is and remains part of the UK until such time as Scotland:

1. Holds a Referendum
2. Wins said - as yet hypothetical - Referendum.
3. Becomes a legally independent country.
4. Applies for membership of the EU.
5. Is accepted for membership of the EU.
6. Actually joins the EU, ... if the EU even exists by then.

(1) Becomes less likely as time goes on
(2) Becomes even less likely as the failures of the SNP become increasingly exposed

Sturgeon's on the rack and about to be consigned to the political scrapheap anyway.
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