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French Elections

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French Elections

Postby diy » Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:23 am

It seems to be a fore gone conclusion that Macron will win the Presidency against Le Pen. But I wonder if that ticket isn't quite as in the bag as everyone thinks? Either option could be bad news for Britain. Macron is seen as very pro EU and therefore any possible reform will get kicked in to the long grass. Le Pen on the other hand seems to represent the toxic extreme that has always existed in French politics. Though it would be wrong to see her as right wing, purely because in France the socialist/communist ideologists also seem to support her. Had this been in the UK, I could see Le Pen with a better chance, purely because she appeals to the older voting generation. However in France where voters are automatically registered the youth seems to be behind Macron.

It seems to be a hard choice since you have to have good with bad in either option, but at least in their system they get to choose the leader.
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Re: French Elections

Postby shootist » Mon Apr 24, 2017 10:17 am

I happened to switch on the car radio in the middle of a discussion on Woman's Hour which was about the percentages of women in active politics, which seemed largely how the figures could be juggled depending upon what the speaker wanted to prove. One part intrigued me, which was when one speaker declared that while an argument could be made that Le Pen's success could be thought of as a plus for women in politics ;nobody here would want to see her elected', to which the rest of the speakers agreed. I couldn't help wondering what those speakers knew of Le Pen's policies and politics. I suspect most of them know bugger all apart from her being described as 'far right' which is media shorthand for even more evil than right wing.
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Re: French Elections

Postby diy » Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:29 pm

Almost by definition, political commentators don't understand the views of the voters. The opinions of le Pen in the Parisian suburbs will differ from that of the unemployed youth in Marseille.
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Re: French Elections

Postby tph » Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:47 pm

On paper Macron should win if you conclude that everyone on the left and those in the moderate right move towards the centre. However this ignores the fact that the extreme left and right both oppose the EU (for different reasons).

Personal I think he will win however it will be closer than is currently being suggested in the media.
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Re: French Elections

Postby Smouldering Stoat » Mon Apr 24, 2017 1:37 pm

The polls have M Macron ahead of Mme Le Pen by 37% to 63%, and they got the result of the first round correct to within a margin of less than 1%.
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Re: French Elections

Postby shootist » Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:26 pm

tph wrote:On paper Macron should win if you conclude that everyone on the left and those in the moderate right move towards the centre. However this ignores the fact that the extreme left and right both oppose the EU (for different reasons).


I think that the definition of 'extreme right' is dependent upon how far 'left' the definer is. It's a bit like defining an alcoholic as someone who drinks more than you do.
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Re: French Elections

Postby miner » Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:30 pm

After the results became clear yesterday, my personal prediction for the outcome on 7 May was 60% : 40% in favour of Macron.

The final result is more difficult for the pollsters to predict, though, and the fact that the 4 losers have all said they'd like their votes directed to Macron means little. Unfortunately, though, I cannot see Le Pen winning.

The EU-worshipping, inexperienced Macron seems likely to be basically just another Hollande - an ineffective President who is merely offering more of the same style. My belief is that Macron will become even more disliked than "Napoleon" Hollande. France is in a mess and Macron is not the person to revitalise it. That's not his mother he's seen with in the media pictures - it's his wife.

My guess is that this is not he end of Marine Le Pen by any means and that after a few years of Macron France will vote for the shake-up it so badly needs politically and Le Pen will win the Presidency at the next election. At just 48, she's still young enough.

Macron is a puppet of the EU and his becoming President will merely result in a slightly slower death for the EU than would have been the case if Le Pen had won.
Last edited by miner on Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: French Elections

Postby dls » Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:58 pm

Our own political world is complex and unpredictable enough to keep me puzzled, without worrying about the French.
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Re: French Elections

Postby Hairyloon » Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:15 pm

shootist wrote:
tph wrote:On paper Macron should win if you conclude that everyone on the left and those in the moderate right move towards the centre. However this ignores the fact that the extreme left and right both oppose the EU (for different reasons).


I think that the definition of 'extreme right' is dependent upon how far 'left' the definer is. It's a bit like defining an alcoholic as someone who drinks more than you do.

And as we have discussed previously "right" describes at least four direction that I can think of.

dls wrote:Our own political world is complex and unpredictable enough to keep me puzzled, without worrying about the French.

Pretty much my attitude as well. Is not quite SEP, but close enough.
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Re: French Elections

Postby atticus » Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:57 pm

A simple internet search reveals a variety of resources to assist the reader in decoding "far right" and other such terms for political standpoints.
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