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Re: BATNA

PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2017 3:00 pm
by atticus
Of "no deal" options?

Re: BATNA

PostPosted: Wed Mar 22, 2017 8:03 am
by atticus
I am encouraged to read that the Foreign Secretary has said that not reaching a deal would not be apocalyptic (although doing a deal with the EU would be preferable). Greatly reassured.

Re: BATNA

PostPosted: Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:39 pm
by dls
Irony is always risky. That is why we have smilies - though I would happily ban them.

I can see a risk that the EU's unconstitutional(?) insistance on agreeing a divorce bill before anything else causing great delay, increasing the risk of no eventual deal.

It has to be correct that an agreed deal would be a very good thing, but logic dictates that not every possible deal offered would be better than no deal. Therefore in logic a no deal result might sadly be the best available. It is at this point that the Lib-dems and Labour depart entirely from this world and jump headfirst into a world in which any and every offer from the EU must, by some unidentified form of necessity, be better than no deal. Both parties have unequivocally said that a deal must be reached at all and any costs.

Some opponents of Brexit are attched to the EU by a sort of spiritual umbilical cord. Their attachment is so complete that they appear quite unable to consider the possibility of life out of the box. It is not that they have reached reasoned conclusion that we should stay in, but rather that to even suggest any life outside the EU is an impossibility.

For the BATNA point, the 'no deal' is the simplest and most likely of t he various scenarios. It must be thought through.

Re: BATNA

PostPosted: Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:46 pm
by atticus
"It must be thought through." That is my point.

I see that the papers report today that another of England's leaders says we need to get rid of the island mentality.

Re: BATNA

PostPosted: Wed Mar 22, 2017 5:12 pm
by Hairyloon
atticus wrote:I see that the papers report today that another of England's leaders says we need to get rid of the island mentality.

I would have to agree that England is not an island. :?

Re: BATNA

PostPosted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:14 am
by tph
I moving towards the idea that some sort of deal will need to be agreed. Failing that we will have a no deal but with provisional agreements in across a whole range of things.

Fisheries is one area which springs to mind.

Re: BATNA

PostPosted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:05 am
by Hairyloon
If no deal includes walking away from all of our alleged financial obligations, what is that likely to do to our international credit rating?

Re: BATNA

PostPosted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:55 pm
by tph
It could go either way. It depends on whether they really are obligations or whether it is money the EU has spent in anticipation of funding from the UK.

Re: BATNA

PostPosted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:30 pm
by Hairyloon
tph wrote:It could go either way. It depends on whether they really are obligations or whether it is money the EU has spent in anticipation of funding from the UK.

Does it depend what they really are, or what the money lenders think they are?

Re: BATNA

PostPosted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:31 pm
by Smouldering Stoat
The latter.