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BATNA

For discussion of all matters relating to the UK's departure from the European Union

Re: BATNA

Postby Hairyloon » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:40 pm

atticus wrote:Do you provide synopses when you post links?

I try to avoid posting links to videos.
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Re: BATNA

Postby atticus » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:37 pm

Good.

The link I have posted is not to a video.
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Re: BATNA

Postby atticus » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:58 pm

Davis even went so far as to say the Government might have got it all worked out in about a year's time.
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Re: BATNA

Postby atticus » Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:14 pm

You could look on the government website....
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Re: BATNA

Postby Hairyloon » Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:28 pm

atticus wrote:Good.

The link I have posted is not to a video.

Were we talking about your link?
atticus wrote:Have you seen the video of his appearance before the committee?
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Re: BATNA

Postby dls » Fri Mar 17, 2017 11:44 am

Atti, I anticipate that the deals you negotiate are rather less complicated and unpredictable.

Anyone who suggests that they really know what will be the result of either a negotiation which hasn't started yet, a deal offered after approval by all (nearly) the Parliaments of Europe, or a no deal result is just dreaming. At least half of those involved are stating intentions 'if' but are stating them not as a true intent, but as a negotiating initial position. Miss S has just added a further huge pile of complications.

Start by looking at th epredictions made of the result of a Brexit yes vote by those in charge of our economy before the vote. Now put the same people in charge of predicting the outcomes.

As I have said, we need to have in place a readiness to deal with a nill deal result. That seems to me to be really quite likely as much because of the unlikelihood of the EU states reaching an agreement, as of our rejecting whatever may be offered.

To say that we cannot safely predict the outcome of any of the choices before us is bl**ding obvious. That does not mean that real attempts should not be made, but we have to be very realistic about the resources available, and the extreme unreliability of any such investigations.

When the UK voted to leave the EU, we voted for an article of faith leap into the dark. Like it or not, that was what happened.
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Re: BATNA

Postby atticus » Fri Mar 17, 2017 12:45 pm

All the more reason to give the matter thought.

The questions are straightforward: what do we want to achieve; what if we don't get it?

The answers require work. Someone really should be getting on with that work. Davis was too blasé before the Committee.
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Re: BATNA

Postby dls » Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:56 pm

Please give me a realistic count of how many significanty different outcomes there may be. There must be hundreds.

Only one has relative simplicity, a 'hard' brexit. It is not a term which means a lot.

Listening to European politicians now they are talking about a double take on where Europe is going. It may well be that they end up, for example, teraing up Schengen. The EEC existed for most of its life without full freedom of movement, and Europe is having very great difficulty maintaining it irrespecive of our involvement. Perhaps if they hadn't played such stupid hardball with Cameron, they could have given him what they end up doing anyway, but kept the UKs substantial net contribution.


I accept that UKIP are very like the SNP - they want what they want irrespctive of what harm they do to others not sharing their belief. A horrible plague is wished on both their houses.

However, we are where we are, and must deal with it as best we can.
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Re: BATNA

Postby atticus » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:14 pm

Please give me a realistic count: how many "no deal" outcomes do you think there are? That is the one Davis and the Brexiteers don't seem to be interested in evaluating, yet it is the alternative against which all the others are to be measured - and that has been my point since post 1.
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Re: BATNA

Postby tph » Sat Mar 18, 2017 1:30 pm

The answer to that question depends upon the detail you wish go into. Superficially there is probably 3-4 options, but when you go into detail there are hundreds if not thousands of possible options.
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