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How to win a second referendum

For discussion of all matters relating to the UK's departure from the European Union

Re: How to win a second referendum

Postby Hairyloon » Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:59 pm

dls wrote:I hope that we have all learned that referendum campaigns are almost inherently disastrous...

I have learned that there can be quite a lot of clear space in almost.
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Re: How to win a second referendum

Postby tph » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:46 pm

Interesting. I agree with point 2. Wheeling out fat cat bosses who's salaries had increased tenfold in the last 10 years whilst their employees salaries had struggled to keep up with inflation was hardly a convincing argument of the economic benefits for staying.

The only problem I can see is that setting out a strategy like this is kind of false. It's what makes me mistrust politicians in the first place. They are not telling you the whole story, they are just telling you what they think you want to hear so that ultimately they will win.

Edit. I would also add that if there were a second referendum you should not discount the influence the EU could have on it. The tacit assumption is that things would return to how they were, however I would expect the EU to want us to give up some of our previous benefits and exemptions in return for staying.
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Re: How to win a second referendum

Postby Hairyloon » Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:31 am

tph wrote:I would also add that if there were a second referendum you should not discount the influence the EU could have on it. The tacit assumption is that things would return to how they were, however I would expect the EU to want us to give up some of our previous benefits and exemptions in return for staying.

We've certainly caused a shake up, so no, it won't go back to how it was, but I don't think they can unilaterally revoke our perks if we don't leave: all the relevant treaties & agreements would still be in force.
They might try it on and say that we can only revoke the article 50 notice if we agree to whatever terms, but our strong, stable Prime Minister will soon put them in their place...
Ah.
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Re: How to win a second referendum

Postby diy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 1:54 pm

A campaign to remain would be won on the basis that you actually do what cameron planned to do. That is get a better deal to stay. You also have to address the associated visible downsides (and perceived downsides) of EU membership:

- Only rich lawyers and bankers benefit
- Only big global business benefit
- my town has been taken over by polish/Romanian/bulgarian (substitute as necessary) migrants taking our houses and jobs
- the other EU members constantly gang up on the poor little old UK
- My grandad/dad/uncle etc would have turned in his grave to see Germany running the show after we fought them off in the war.

Its not going to be won, but talking about product safety, job opportunities, free travel healthcare, weakness in the economy.
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Re: How to win a second referendum

Postby formerly_IKB » Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:12 pm

Hairyloon wrote:Looking back at the campaign by Remain, it was unbelievably shoddy.
Marketing is not my thing, and I needed it pointing out how bad it was, but having now seen, it almost defies belief how bad it was.

It didn't matter how bad it was. Leavers voted Leave regardless of any arguments (they are still immune to logical argument, certainly don't care about the economic argument, and do as they're told by the gutter right wing press). Many of them were indifferent to the Leave/Remain debte, and simply wanted to - to quote a couple of Leave voters I encountered - stir the shit up. One of these people (a first cousin) wasn't a victim of austerity, grew up in Europe and is bilingual. It beggars belief. The other shit stirrer was just a guy I got stuck with talking while sheltering from heavy rain in London on 23rd June 2016. His only rationale was wanting to cause trouble, register a vote of 'protest'. He literally hadn't thought beyond that, like how it might affect him or his work, let alone other people, the economy etc.
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Re: How to win a second referendum

Postby Hairyloon » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:25 pm

formerly_IKB wrote:
Hairyloon wrote:Looking back at the campaign by Remain, it was unbelievably shoddy.
Marketing is not my thing, and I needed it pointing out how bad it was, but having now seen, it almost defies belief how bad it was.

It didn't matter how bad it was. Leavers voted Leave regardless of any arguments (they are still immune to logical argument, certainly don't care about the economic argument, and do as they're told by the gutter right wing press).

There are, I think, a small number of firm remainers, a small number of firm leavers, and a whole lot of people that were never too bothered about it, but felt that they ought to vote. Some of these gave the question careful consideration, others voted on whim. Few, if any voted from the position of being properly informed.

Many of them were indifferent to the Leave/Remain debte, and simply wanted to - to quote a couple of Leave voters I encountered - stir the shit up. One of these people (a first cousin) wasn't a victim of austerity, grew up in Europe and is bilingual. It beggars belief. The other shit stirrer was just a guy I got stuck with talking while sheltering from heavy rain in London on 23rd June 2016. His only rationale was wanting to cause trouble, register a vote of 'protest'. He literally hadn't thought beyond that, like how it might affect him or his work, let alone other people, the economy etc.

Sorry, but I agree with them: a good shake up is what we need and parliament has a clear duty to consider all of the relevant facts before they decide what to do.

Brexit is no longer about leaving the EU, it is about the balance of power between parliament, the people, the Prime Minister the Party & the papers.
The PM assumed control by overwriting the properly decided will of parliament regarding the nature of the referendum, and that is the crux of the matter.

The fact is that it was an advisory referendum, the electorate knew it was an advisory referendum and treated it accordingly. They knew that the PM had no power to overrule parliament, they did not trust him to keep his word and they understood parliament's clear duty as representatives.

There are no end of ways to interpret the referendum result, but to my mind they resolve to just two: either we hold that the electorate trusts the government to deliver on its promises or we hold that it trusts parliament to do its fundamental duty. On the facts as known, it is either one or the other.
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Re: How to win a second referendum

Postby dls » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:53 am

Re: How to win a second referendum


Ambiguity.

Is this how do we get a second referendum, or, if we get a second referendum, how one side (or the other) might best go about winning it?
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Re: How to win a second referendum

Postby atticus » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:40 am

Those who seek clarification on that point will find it by reading the article to which there is a link in the opening post.

Those who wish to obfuscate probably won't bother reading that article.
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Re: How to win a second referendum

Postby diy » Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:54 pm

There is nothing particularly exciting about the article in the original link. It is about IF there was another referendum. The article itself is barely better than click-bait.. the 10 point plan would fail horribly.

1. Appeal to the academic elite - yes their numbers are huge, not.
2. So what is the benefit then?
3. You need to be in the EU to have the NHS? Doesn't seem credible, there are clearly arguments on both sides as to why the NHS is better off in/out/shake it about.
4. Queues for non EU citizens are always shorter. The reason there are queues is because they don't give a poo about making you wait or timing immigration checks with the plane landing. The process in most US airports is slicker than many I've been to in the EU.
5. lots of EU sanctioned poo foods - e.g. tumbled chicken. dual-quality foods
6. there is more to cancer treatment than frying it with radiation.
7. see point 1. Trump understands messaging to the masses
8. Yep, re-moaning does seem undemocratic, but I'd argue it was too close a vote to say that.
10. No evidence that voter intent has changed. Surely you have to focus on leavers to win next time?
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Re: How to win a second referendum

Postby dls » Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:14 pm

Repeat endlessly: “You can have Brexit or you can have the NHS – it’s your choice.”


Endless repetition would not add any weight to a vacuous assertion - and it looks particularly hypocrtical from one advocating the dropping of project fear.
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