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What if?

What if?

Postby Hairyloon » Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:30 pm

There is a lot of talk about a new political party arising. I think there is no question that one is needed, the Conservatives are too beholden to the Love of Money, the Labour Party is simply and fundamentally broken and the others also ran.

I appreciate that it is unlikely, but what would happen if a new party formed and a majority of sitting MP's defected to it?
That may depend upon the rate at which they defect: if they did so slowly, then there could be a succession of by-elections,but we have discussed here before that a by-election is not necessarily required when a member changes party.
Or if they defected on mass, then a general election would seem sensible, but AFAIK the only mechanism by which one could be forced would be if they chose to push it.
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Re: What if?

Postby Smouldering Stoat » Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:32 pm

The members of the Hairy Party may remove the Government by means of a motion of no confidence. It is up to them to form a Government or to choose to hold an election: a General Election follows if the Commons have not passed a vote of confidence within the 14 days following the vote of no confidence.

There is indeed a lot of talk about a new party: the New Statesman reported a few days ago that George Osborne suggested in the aftermath of the referendum that a party (to be called The Democrats) should be formed comprising of centrist Tories and anti-Corbyn Labour MPs together with the Lib Dems, but nothing came from it. There are a few organisations around that could be transformed into the nucleus of a new party in the same way that the Council for Social Democracy became the SDP. Personally I think if one is going to arise it will more likely to be after the next election than before.
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Re: What if?

Postby miner » Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:51 pm

Yes, I reckon that the Labour Party - such as it now exists - needs to be finally annihilated at the next election first. Its final démise will then likely result in some new party being formed, probably consisting of primarily of currently-disaffected Labour MPs and supporters.

That idiot Farron - who is merely compounding the damage done to the LibDems by Clegg - is ensuring that the LibDems will also likely all-but disappear by the next election.

All this is very sad, really, because good government is served best by our having a responsible, effective and meaningful Opposition, something which we have lacked for several years now with the pathetic clowns that Labour and the LibDems have managed to elect as their so-called "Leaders".
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Re: What if?

Postby atticus » Sat Apr 08, 2017 2:36 pm

Hairy may be too young to remember 1981 when some 20 or so Labour MPs formed the SDP.

The idea of a new party picking up a majority of MPs is fanciful. So, I think, are some of miner's predictions: mine is that the LibDems will begin the climb back.
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Re: What if?

Postby Hairyloon » Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:01 pm

atticus wrote:The idea of a new party picking up a majority of MPs is fanciful...

I did say so in OP, but there is talk from some so called "heavy hitters" from both parties so I expect them to attract some attention.

So, I think, are some of miner's predictions: mine is that the LibDems will begin the climb back.

They will, but they have a long hard climb, and they do seem intent on hanging on to the heavy baggage of the coalition rather than admitting it was an unholy mistake.
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Re: What if?

Postby Smouldering Stoat » Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:04 pm

The Lib Dems are doing well in byelections. But the Lib Dems have always exceeded their national popularity in byelections. They do indeed have a mountain to climb even to get back to their previous significance and it may be that their coalition history creates a ceiling they can't break through: it's poisonous to a lot of moderate Labour members and supporters. There's an argument that a new party would be able to start again with a clean sheet.

Prediction is a bit of a mug's game at the moment. We're in interesting times and we shouldn't discount the possibility of dramatic change - after all, there have been a lot of things in the last couple of years that not many predicted. The Liberals won a landslide in 1906 with 398 seats: but they never won an overall majority again, and 12 years later they were reduced to 36 MPs.
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Re: What if?

Postby dls » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:00 am

The Lib Dems have nailed their souls to continued EU membership. There is a clear possibility that they will provide a home for similarly minded, but I think it will go nowhere.

The Labour Party has lost Scotland. They suffer a delusion that somehow they are to be taken more seriously because they persuaded a fair number of people who are always going to vote for them to pay £3. In doing so they have lost any focus. Who is in charge? Not the MPs, nit its leader, and they are asnwerable to Momentum, without knowing who Momentum is answerable to.

The huge wound in the Tories was the EU. They still have their loonies, but they have mostly been sidelined, with May and Hammond surprisingly better than they might have been.

UKIP are a party without a purpose.

A new party? I do not believe that one can grow from the simple need for one. Either it has a common theoretical purpose or it will fall to bits fairly quickly. These things always need a sugar daddy, but such can be fickle.

SS is right - interesting times.
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Re: What if?

Postby Hairyloon » Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:08 am

dls wrote:The Lib Dems have nailed their souls to continued EU membership.

Except that they haven't; I might respect them more if they had, but they are banging on about "respecting the referendum result" and the hardness of the brexit.
Who is in charge? Not the MPs, nit its leader, and they are asnwerable to Momentum, without knowing who Momentum is answerable to.

I did briefly have hopes for Momentum: it was supposed to be a "grass roots" organisation and if it were answerable to those grass roots, then that could be a very good thing. But they failed the basic tests early on and have not improved. :(

A new party? I do not believe that one can grow from the simple need for one. Either it has a common theoretical purpose or it will fall to bits fairly quickly.

The common purpose they speak of appears to be to remain in the EU, but they are leaving it a bit late to get started on that. Without that, there is a clear gap in the fertile "middle ground" and a lot of disenfranchised Labour voters looking for somewhere to go. I'd hope there are a growing number of Conservative voters feeling uncomfortable with their party, but their mindset is incomprehensible, so I wouldn't want to predict on that.
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Re: What if?

Postby steve » Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:31 am

I did briefly have hopes for Momentum: it was supposed to be a "grass roots" organisation and if it were answerable to those grass roots, then that could be a very good thing.

During the post-Miliband leadership election, Corbyn's team sent out some very simple emails to Labour members and supporters asking them, for example, to click if they had decided who to vote for. i.e. they were designed to get clicks rather than campaign.

Those that clicked (such as myself) were subsequent recipients of Momentum emails (Momentum was formed after Corbyn won, I understand). The branding of Corbyn's campaign and of Momentum was very similar so there was no clear indication that Momentum were not a Labour-affiliated organisation.

So no, they are not a grass-roots organisation. If the Labour Party were a business I'd be asking what consumer laws were broken.
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Re: What if?

Postby atticus » Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:11 am

As described, the harvesting of e-mail addresses indicates a failure to comply with requirements of the Data Protection Acy 1998.
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